In July – Aug 2012, US experience the worst drought since 1956. 61% of US land area is under moderate to extreme drought condition. 88% of corn & 87% of soya bean crops in US is affected by the drought and world food price for corn shoots up by 55%.
Climate change and extreme weather patterns are now affecting the world’s food supply. “How to feed the world in the next 40 years (with population growth and increased extreme weather events) ?” is a question that we would all be concern about.
In Mar 2012, a report commissioned by Cgiar (a research alliance financed by the United Nations and the World Bank) entitled “Achieving Food Security in the face of Climate change” was released to illustrate the complexity of the problem.
The report states that :
Globally our food system is not sustainable. It does not provide adequate nutrition to everyone on the planet and, at the same time, changes to our climate threaten the future of farming as we know it.
On a planet with sufficient food for all, a billion people go hungry, Another billion over consume, increasing risk from chronic diseases.
“Business as usual” in our globally interconnected food system will not bring us food security or environmental sustainability.
The food system faces additional pressure as the global population grows to around 9 billion in 2050, as diet shifts towards higher consumption of calories, fats and animal products. Meat consumption is projected to increase from 37kg/person/year in 2009 to over 52kg/person / year by 2050 !
If our current consumption trends continues, demand for cereals (corn & grains) will increase by 70% by 2050, and will double in many low income countries !!!
[That is really unsustainable !!!]
The report recommends that :
We must seize every opportunity to shift away from inefficient farm practices, supply chains and diet choices towards long-term sustainability, profitability and health. It also calls for better dietary habits in wealthy countries, which have disproportionately and unsustainably high calorie intake.
New York Times : Sustainably Feeding a Changing World (April 6, 2012)
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/07/opinion/sustainably-feeding-a-changing-world.html?_r=2
“Achieving Food Security in the face of Climate change” Full report:
http://ccafs.cgiar.org/sites/default/files/assets/docs/climate_food_commission-final-mar2012.pdf
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In 2010, a UNEP report “Accessing the Environmental Impacts of Consumption and Production: Priority, Product and Materials” shows that meat production uses a lot of land, food and water resources.
“Agricultural goods, particularly products from animals, which are fed more than half of all world crops, have a huge impact on the planet.
Agricultural production accounts for 70% of the global freshwater consumption and 38% of the total land use. Food production accounts for 19% of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions and 60% of the phosphorus and nitrogen pollution and 30% of toxic pollution in Europe”
The UNEP Report states that “A Substantial reduction of impacts would only be possible with a substantial worldwide diet change away from animal products.”
[80% of the world’s soya bean, 50% of the world’s corn & 36% of the world’s grains were fed to farmed animals. The world’s crops can actually feed 10 billion people, but MORE than half of it is channeled to feed farmed animals, leaving 1 billion people without enough food to eat.
It takes 2 to 10 kg of plant food to produce 1 kg of meat. It takes 5 to 80 times more water to produce meat than to produce plant food. Meat production places a huge stress on the planet’s food & water resources.]
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UNEP 2009 report “The Environmental Food Crisis” shows that if we reduce meat consumption in wealthy nations to 37.4 kg/ capita in 2050, we could free up enough cereal (which is used as animal feed) to feed 1.2 billion people.
[ Current meat consumption level in wealthy nations is 80 to 110 kg/ capita. (Singapore’s meat consumption level is 90 kg/ capita) It means we would have to cut our meat consumption by more than half to help in the world’s situation.]
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Recent research also reflects the above recommendation:
Eat Less Meat and Farm Efficiently to Tackle Climate Change, Scientists Say ScienceDaily (June 19, 2012)
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/06/120619225934.htm
A Jun 2012 report from University of Exeter, UK, shows that :
To reduce the amount of land needed for farming and leave sufficient land for some bio-energy, We will need to bring down the average global meat consumption from 16.6 per cent to 15 per cent of average daily calorie intake — about half that of the average western diet.
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An Aug report even shows that water scarcity would force the world to adopt a much more veggie/ less meat diet.
Food shortages could force world into vegetarianism, warn scientists (26 August 2012)
The world’s population may have to switch almost completely to a vegetarian diet over the next 40 years to avoid catastrophic shortages.
Humans derive about 20% of their protein from animal-based products now, but this may need to drop to just 5% to feed the extra 2 billion people expected to be alive by 2050, according to research by some of the world’s leading water scientists.
“There will not be enough water available on current croplands to produce food for the expected 9 billion population in 2050 if we follow current trends and changes towards diets common in western nations,” the report by Malik Falkenmark and colleagues at the Stockholm International Water Institute (SIWI) said.
“There will be just enough water if the proportion of animal-based foods is limited to 5% of total calories and considerable regional water deficits can be met by a … reliable system of food trade.”
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From the above news reports, we know that the wealthy nations would need to cut our meat consumption at least by half to ensure that we have enough food to feed everyone by 2050. The world does not have enough food and water resources to support our current level of meat consumption.
As a first step, we can start by adopting some meatless days to help the planet: www.veggiethursday.sg http://www.meatfreemondays.co.uk/ On non-meatless days, it is advisable to follow US Food Pyramid “My Plate” when eating meals. [“My Plate” shows that a meal should consist of 1/4 vegetables, 1/4 fruits, 1/4 grains & 1/4 protein. US government is promoting this diet to reduce obesity and return health to the US citizens.
Check it out at http://www.choosemyplate.gov/ ]
Let’s do all we can to ensure that there is enough food for all.
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